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Seven years ago, a mere eight words to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.